College Basketball Preview - Atlantic Sun Conference

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10/30/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - OUTLOOK: The Atlantic Sun Conference becomes more crowded this season, as two more teams will join the ranks, making the jump to the big time. The two new programs are South Carolina-Upstate and Florida Gulf Coast, but these two schools are years away from competing with the top teams in this conference. One of those elite Atlantic Sun teams are the Pirates from East Tennessee State. ETSU is coming off its first-ever regular season Atlantic Sun title, finishing the year with a 24-10 overall ledger, along with an outstanding 16-2 mark in league play. Unfortunately the Pirates stumbled in the conference tournament, but despite the late collapse, the team was a part of the NIT for the first time in 25 years. Another elite team in this conference, and also the team that knocked off ETSU in the conference tourney, was the Belmont Bruins. This defensive minded squad captured the Atlantic Sun Tournament title by winning 10 of its last 11 games, earning its second consecutive spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Bruins were one and done at the Big Dance, but this team is just one of the schools in the Atlantic Sun this season that can head to the NCAA Tourney to dance with the big schools. Jacksonville looks to be a very dangerous team, as the Dolphins continue to make tremendous strides. After going just 1-27 in 2005-06, the Dolphins finished with a winning mark last year which included a solid 11-7 league record. Here is where the dropoff begins as the remaining teams do not possess the talent to compete for the league title. Campbell is a high-scoring program, but the Camels along with the Lipscomb Bison will struggle to hover around mediocrity. Finding themselves down near the bottom will be Mercer, Gardner-Webb and Stetson. Fortunately, because only eight teams are eligible for the conference tournament, the Bears, Bulldogs and Hatters will have a shot at making a run in the Atlantic Sun tourney. As for the newcomers, Florida Gulf Coast and South Carolina-Upstate, those two schools will join Kennesaw State and North Florida at the bottom of the standings. All four programs will continue to grow, while shuffling through their transition period.

CONFERENCE CHAMPION: East Tennessee State

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. East Tennessee State, 2. Jacksonville, 3. Belmont, 4. Lipscomb, 5. Campbell, 6. Mercer, 7. North Florida, 8. Kennesaw State, 9. Gardner-Webb, 10. Stetson, 11. Florida Gulf Coast, 12. South Carolina-Upstate.

TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:

EAST TENNESSEE STATE: The Pirates head into the new campaign looking to collect their second consecutive regular season title. Last year ETSU finished with an outstanding 16-2 mark in the conference, but stumbled in the tournament title game against Belmont. The Pirates should once again be in line for a trip to the Big Dance but any success rests mainly on the shoulders of the Atlantic Sun Player of the Year, Courtney Pigram. Pigram received the prestigious honor by averaging 18.1 ppg to go along with team-highs in assists (127) and steals (89). The loss of forward Brad Knuckles will obviously hurt, but fortunately coach Murry Bartow was able to recruit forward Kevin Tiggs. The 6-4 forward from Mott Community College was sensational last season, and finished as the Division II Player of the Year. Following Tiggs will be teammate Greg Hamlin, who is also a juco transfer. Both players along with Andrew Reed (9.1 ppg and 4.8 rpg) give the Pirates a tremendous frontcourt. Someone who is expected to play a huge role is Dequan Twilley. The junior was a key reserve for the Pirates last season, posting 5.8 ppg and 2.1 rpg, but now he will most likely join Pigram in the starting backcourt. With a solid backcourt, and tremendous talent up front, the Pirates look primed for another sensational season.

JACKSONVILLE: Coach Cliff Warren started his tenure at Jacksonville with a terrible 1-27 mark in 2005-06, but the team made tremendous strides forward last year and closed out the season with a 15-14 ledger, which included an 11-7 league mark. This year the Dolphins will look to continue their forward march, as three starters return, including sophomores Ben Smith and Lehmon Colbert. Last season both players were selected to the All-Freshman Team and for good reason, as Smith averaged 9.8 ppg and 4.2 apg, while Colbert posted 11.5 ppg to go along with 5.3 rpg. Also returning is the team's top frontcourt player in Marcus Allen, who tallied 9.3 ppg to go along with team-highs in rebounds (6.9 rpg) and blocks (32). Since the team was so young a year ago, there are a lot of players returning, so the Dolphins should have plenty of depth off the bench. Senior guard Evan Jefferson is clearly the most experienced reserved player for Jacksonville and while tallying just under 18 minutes per contest, the guard produced 6.4 ppg. What could push this team to the next level is newcomer Szymon Lukasiak. Lukasiak stands at 6-10 and in a league that lacks size in the frontcourt, Lukasiak could prove to be valuable.

BELMONT: The Bruins were clearly the top defensive team in the Atlantic Sun, and rode that defensive play to their second straight NCAA Tournament berth. Belmont posted a solid 14-4 ledger in league play, winning 10 of its last 11 contests, including a tremendous victory over ETSU in the title game. Coach Rick Byrd has spent a quarter of a century on the sideline for Belmont and his defensive strategy has been a staple for the Bruins. Last year Belmont held opponents to just 64.5 ppg, while limiting teams to a meager 39.3 percent shooting effort from the field. This year's team will revolve around the play of the backcourt tandem of Justin Hare and Andy Wicke. Hare led the team with 14.3 ppg and also dished out 82 assists, while Wicke tallied 9.4 ppg. The loss of Boomer Herndon and Josh Goodwin certainly hurt the Bruins in the paint, as well as on the boards. However, Matthew Dotson is back for the Bruins and should be the main option down low. Doston posted 7.0 ppg last season and should have company from 6-9 forward Keaton Belcher.

LIPSCOMB: The Bison flirted with title dreams over the past few seasons, but this year Lipscomb may take a step back. The team does return potential A-Sun Player of the Year Eddie Ard, as well as Jason Hopkins. Ard led the team last season with a whopping 15.0 ppg and 5.8 rpg, while Hopkins tallied 6.0 ppg to go along with 5.3 rpg. However, following those two players there is a huge dropoff in production. Expect freshman center Adnan Hodzic to crack the starting lineup for Lipscomb. The big man is not much of an offensive talent, but he should certainly help the Bison on the glass, which is definitely needed considering the team struggled in this area a year ago. Leading the way in the backcourt is Michael Lusk, but the guard was not much of a scoring threat, posting just 5.5 ppg. Lusk will definitely need to improve in that area, as the team will likely start freshman Jimmy Oden alongside of him. Overall there are far too many question marks for Lipscomb to perform at the level it has in the recent past.

CAMPBELL: The Camels are coming off their best season in 11 years, as the team finished with a 14-17 ledger along with a 7-11 mark in league action. The team was able to collect a school-best 300 steals on the season, but at the same time the Camels struggled overall defensively, surrendering 78.9 ppg. Offensively, Campbell should be a force, mainly because of the return of forward Jonathan Rodriguez, who averaged 17.3 ppg to go along with 8.8 rpg. Rodriguez also dished out 94 assists, while recording 34 blocks and 45 steals. Unfortunately, Rodriguez does not have much help underneath, as the team will be looking for Kyle Vejraska to take tremendous strides forward. Last season the forward posted 6.4 ppg in 17.1 minutes per contest. Campbell is in much better shape in the backcourt, as the team returns starter Ruell Pringle. Pringle tallied 8.4 ppg a year ago, but he is a constant threat from behind the arc, nailing 42.9 percent from long range. A key to the success for the Camels this year will be the progression of Reggie Bishop, who averaged 8.5 ppg, while shooting 42.4 percent from the floor. Rodriguez is clearly one of the top players in this conference, but Campbell will hover around .500 as the team will struggle defensively, while also struggling with consistency offensively.

MERCER: The Bears are a scary team solely on the fact the squad possesses last season's Freshman of the Year James Florence. Florence stepped on the court last season and was an instant success, finishing the year with a conference-best 19.3 ppg. Making this backcourt one of the best in the A-Sun is senior leader Shaddean Aaron, as the guard posted 15.9 ppg, while also collecting 6.1 rpg. Mercer will also benefit from having excellent depth in the frontcourt, beginning with the return of starting forwards Sam Dolan and Brian Pfohl. Dolan is the main threat down low and will be a major component this year, especially if the opposition spends most games keying on the backcourt. Also helping in the paint is reserve BeJay Corley and freshman center, 6-10 Justin Davis. However, the most important player in the frontcourt will most likely be Calvin Henry, who only played 14 games before becoming academically ineligible. In those 14 contests, Henry averaged 9.4 ppg to go along with 9.1 rpg and a team-best 38 blocks. Mercer has a solid core of talent, but the team must control its mistakes (-3.7 turnover ratio last season) and also put forth a better defensive effort if the Bears plan on becoming a threat this season.

NORTH FLORIDA: It can not get much worse for the Ospreys, as the team finished just 3-26 last year, including just 1-17 in its first full slate of A-Sun games. North Florida should see a slight jump up in the win column, mainly because the team has four starters returning. The main issue the Ospreys much deal with is their inconsistency on offense, as the team struggled a year ago, being outscored by 13 points per contest. Unfortunately the team's top scorer in Rashad Williams is gone, but the remainder of the double-figure scorers are back. James Grimball is easily the main threat down low, as the forward is coming off a tremendous season in which he posted 11.1 ppg to go along with 7.7 rpg. Unfortunately, there is not much else in the paint for UNF, so coach Matt Kilcullen will need Arnold Henry to make big strides forward. The backcourt has much more depth beginning with point guard Chris Timberlake, who finished last season with 11 ppg and a team-best 119 assists. Germaine Sparkes is a big guard who plays a physical game and should definitely figure into the plans for 2007-08. Transfers Tom Hammond and Stan Januska should also see significant time on the court, but the bottom line is UNF will struggle once again.

KENNESAW STATE: The Owls return their top two scorers in Ronell Wooten and Shaun Stegall, but as for the rest of the roster, Kennesaw State is a very young team. Last year the Owls struggled going just 14-18 overall, and the main reason was the team's inability to produce offensively, as Kennesaw State posted just 67.9 ppg, while shooting a meager 39.6 percent from the floor. Just like last year the Owls will need someone other than Wooten and Stegall to step up their game in 2007-08. Jon-Michael Nickerson will have to be that player that improves drastically. The sophomore averaged less than five points per contest, but this season the 6-6 forward should come close to posting a double-double every night. Overall this is still a young squad, so a tremendous jump in play is unlikely. However, expect the team to take some steps in the right direction.

GARDNER-WEBB: The Bulldogs were woeful at the offensive end of the floor last season, and that was a big reason why the team lost 21 games a year ago. Unfortunately the leading scorer from the 2006-07 squad is gone, so it leaves the pressures of leading this unit solely on the shoulders of Thomas Sanders. Sanders averaged 11 ppg and also pulled down a team-best 7.0 rpg, but he can not be the lone scorer for the Bulldogs. The only other returning starter is Takayo Siddle, but he must improve drastically on offense, as the guard scored just 8.6 ppg, while shooting a pathetic 38.6 percent from the floor. Unfortunately, there is not much depth on the bench either, as the only players returning with much experience are Grayson Flittner and Matt French. Coach Rick Scruggs is hoping for newcomer Nate Blank to instantly step in and become a staple of this young squad.

STETSON: The Hatters had a tough time offensively this past season, but with four starters back coach Derek Waugh is hoping the team can avoid another 20 loss season. Garfield Blair is clearly the leader of this bunch, as the guard posted 13.2 ppg a year ago. Kris Thomas will once again join Blair in the backcourt, but must improve his 37.1 percent shooting percentage if he is going to help the Hatters offensively. The frontcourt has much more potential, beginning with Eric Diaz, who is a solid forward with enough talent to post a double-double. Collin Okafor will be the defensive presence the Hatters will definitely need. Along with Tim Lang (30 blocks), the pair should be a dangerous defensive tandem down low. Also expected to see time in the paint for Stetson will be J.J. Hirst and sophomore Sheldon Oliver.

FLORIDA GULF COAST: This is a team full of veterans and leaders, beginning with forward Adam Lidell, who posted 11.4 ppg to go along with 8.3 rpg. Lidell will have plenty of support, as the team also returns Terike Barrowes. The senior forward only averaged 5.8 ppg and 4.5 rpg, but with more experience under his belt he should be primed for a breakout season. Rounding out the frontcourt will be Landon Adler, who was a key reserve last season, posting over 10 ppg off the bench. The trio should be one of the top baseline groups in the Atlantic Sun. As for the backcourt, Rob Quaintance is a tremendous floor general, averaging 5.3 apg last year, but he needs to become a better scorer. Cecil Avant and Yavney Neptune will also see time on the floor, but neither will have an overwhelming presence on the court. Bottom line is the team has tremendous talent, but no chance of postseason play since it is in the middle of its reclassification tenure.

SOUTH CAROLINA-UPSTATE: Much like the Eagles, the Spartans are new to the Atlantic Sun, so the early going will be tough for USC Upstate. Coach Eddie Payne is hoping his son Luke can lead the Spartans on the court once again, as the senior is coming off a solid junior campaign. Payne averaged 11.2 ppg a year ago, and also dished out 93 assists. Payne is clearly the floor general for USC-Upstate, but he will be leading a relatively young group, as the team will have seven new faces this year. The most important incoming player is Mezie Uzochuwu. The freshman swingman averaged a double-double in high school last season and is a scoring threat every time he touches the ball. Since the team is in the reclassification phase the Spartans have a few years before being able to contend for postseason glory.