College Basketball Preview - Big Sky Conference

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

10/30/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - OUTLOOK: With seven different regular-season champions since 1999-2000, the Big Sky figures to be up for grabs again in 2007-2008. Weber State returns as the regular season and conference champions, but must fill the void of losing the conference MVP. Their stiffest competition welcomes back some serious talent. Montana returns four starters and looks poised for its first regular season title since 1999-2000. With nine returning players and two junior- college transfers, Portland State figures to be in the mix come March. The rest of the conference, unfortunately, does not have the luxury of this established leadership. Northern Arizona, which tied for the regular season conference title last year, and Idaho State, each lost their top three scorers. Eastern Washingtons first-year coach must replace the conferences leading scorer and first round NBA draft pick. Montana State is relying on two junior college transfers to bolster their beleaguered frontcourt. Meanwhile, Sacramento State and Northern Colorado look to improve as they finished league play as the only two teams with a losing conference record last year.

CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Montana

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. Montana, 2. Weber State, 3. Portland State, 4. Northern Arizona, 5. Idaho State, 6. Eastern Washington, 7. Montana State, 8. Northern Colorado, 9. Sacramento State

TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:

MONTANA: With four starters returning to the program, Coach Wayne Tinkle must be tickled pink about the expectations for the Grizzlies this year. The only First-Team All Big Sky returnee is junior forward Jordan Hasquet. The Montana native averaged 15.6 points and 7.6 rebounds in conference play last season. Fellow frontcourt man Andrew Strait averaged similar numbers with 15.0 points and 6.4 rebounds in taking home Second-Team all-conference honors. His .611 field goal percentage ranked him 14th in the nation in that category. Carmon Rundles and Matt Martin solidify an experienced starting backcourt. Rundles earned the Big Sky Freshman-of-the-Year award while draining 47.8 percent from the three-point line last year. Martin is a senior guard with a ton of minutes logged on his belt, averaging over 19 minutes a game the past three seasons. The experience and inside-outside scoring threats should put the Grizzlies in contention for the conference title.

WEBER STATE: After tying for last in the Big Sky in 2005-2006, Coach Randy Rahe took the Wildcats to the NCAA Tournament in his first year on the job. Though they lost conference MVP David Patten, seven of the top nine scorers return to the team, led by two foreigners. Junior guard Juan Pablo Silveira, who competed for the Uruguay national team this summer and played high school ball in Utah, averaged 11.1 points per game and shot 45.9 percent from three-point range while starting all 32 games last year. Arturas Valeika, a 6-9 forward from Lithuania, averaged 6.5 rpg, tied for tops among returning members of the conference. Dezmon Harris came on strong late in the year, including a 20-point effort in the conference title game. Junior college transfer Kellen McCoy, who averaged 19.5 ppg playing for Northern Oklahoma College-Tonkawa last season, also figures to play a role in putting the Wildcats back in the Big Dance.

PORTLAND STATE: The Vikings will be looking inside early and often as they return three starters in the frontcourt that averaged over ten points a game. Senior Scott Morrison towers at the center position at 6-11, 250 pounds. Morrison averaged 11.2 ppg and set the PSU all-time record for blocked shots, including a team-record 70 blocks last season. Big Sky Newcomer of the Year, Dupree Lucas, led the team with 13.2 ppg and 3.8 assists per game, but shot a mediocre 22.4 percent from the three-point line. Senior Deonte Huff had a strong second half and finished the year with a respectable 10.7 ppg and 5.6 rpg. University of Portland transfer Jeremiah Dominguez, a 5-6 guard, figures to vie for the starting point guard spot. Coach Ken Bone must get ample production from his inexperienced backcourt in order to compete for a league title.

NORTERN ARIZONA: Entering his ninth season as the Lumberjacks coach, Mike Adras is looking for a repeat performance from last year, with the obvious exception of losing the conference title game. Back-to-back regular season titles however, will be hard to come by as the team lost its top three scorers, who combined for 47.3 points per game. Returning is junior point guard Josh Wilson. Wilson has been fantastic in his two years as the Lumberjack floor manager, leading the conference in assists both years. His 6.03 assists per game last year ranked him ninth nationally. He will be distributing to the two-headed monster of Klye Landry and Ryan McCurdy. At 6-9 and 6-10 respectfully, the forwards averaged a combined 18.1 ppg and 11.5 rpg in limited action. With more production from these two, and contributions from some newcomers, Northern Arizona should figure to be in the top half of the league.

IDAHO STATE: After winning its first five conference games last season, the Bengals finished a rather disappointing 8-8 in league play. Though he lost his three top scorers, Coach Joe OBrien might have this seasons Big Sky Newcomer of the Year in forward Lucas Steijn. Steijn, at 6-10, 230 pounds, originally signed with Indiana before transferring to John A. Logan Junior College. There he averaged 10.3 ppg and 5.5 rpg while shooting 54 percent from the field. Returning starters Matt Stucki and Logan Kinghorn should provide excellent leadership. Stucki averaged 9.9 points and 4.1 rebounds in conference action, while Kinghorn averaged 7.8 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. If Steijn can live up to expectations and Obriens other four recruits can play admirably, the Bengals can improve on last years conference record.

EASTERN WASHINGTON: First-year coach Kirk Earlywine figures to have his hands full with this years Eagles. Not hired until the middle of June, Earlywine must replace four starters, including possibly the best player the Big Sky has ever seen. Sophomore guard Rodney Stuckey was picked 15th overall in the NBA Draft, only the second Big Sky player ever to be taken in the first round. The do-it-all guard led the team in points and assists. That production will have to be replaced by guards Marcus Hinton and transfer Adris Deleon. Hinton only started nine games last year, but was deadly from behind the arc, where he averaged 56 percent. DeLeon transferred from the College of Southern Idaho where he averaged 8.3 points and 3.9 assists per game. The lone returning starter comes in the form of 6-5 forward Kellen Williams. The success of the Eagles falls on Williams as they hope he can improve on his 8.4 points and 5.6 rebounds per game.

MONTANA STATE: The Bobcats possess the most experienced backcourt in the league. The trio of Carlos Taylor, Casey Durham and Mecklen Davis can hit from outside and set up the low post players effectively. Taylor is the most polished of the three, gaining Honorable Mention All-Big Sky honors last season. He averaged a healthy 12.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.6 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Durham is the deep threat and distributor, leading the team with 110 assists while nailing 44 three-pointers. Davis is a consistent option offensively, averaging 7.8 ppg, while shooting 48-percent from the field. Without a presence down low however, the Bobcats might struggle. Junior college transfers Marcus Blackshire (6-6), and Divaldo Mbunga (6-9), must provide immediate help in a league dominated by forwards.

NORTHERN COLORADO: In their first year in the Big Sky, the Bears were a little overmatched, finishing with a 2-14 conference record. This season figures to be a little better for Coach Tad Boyle as the Bears possess one of the better inside-outside combinations in the league in fellow seniors Kirk Archibeque and Sean Taibi. Archibeque led the team with 6.4 rebounds last year and added 13.1 points a game from the center position. Taibi led the team with 14.6 ppg, and knocked down an astounding .450 of his three- pointers. With this one-two combo, it will be tough for the Bears not to improve on last years mark.

SACREMENTO STATE: With only two starters returning on a team that finished 5-11 in Big Sky play, the Hornets figure to be on the outside looking in come March. Junior Loren Leath leads all returning players with 12.8 points per game last season, while making a team-high 72 three-pointers. Fellow guard Roderick Adams played well at the tail end of the season. He shot a respectable 46.7 percent from the field and chipped in three assists a game. If transfer Justin Eller, who averaged 17.7 points and nine rebounds a game for the College of the Siskiyous, can come in and provide an inside force, the Hornets should improve on their disappointing record last season. Otherwise, it could be a long season for eighth-year coach Jerome Jenkins.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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