10/30/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - OUTLOOK: The Akron Zips and Kent State Golden Flashes battled for the East Division last season, while the Toledo Rockets ran away with the West Division, but none of those three teams captured the Conference Tournament title. The winner was in fact the Miami-Ohio RedHawks, who finished last year with a mediocre 18-15 ledger to go along with a 10-6 mark in league play. Repeating for the tournament title will be tough for the RedHawks, especially playing in the same division as Akron and KSU. As for the Zips, they collected a school-best 26 victories last season and also finished with a 13-3 league mark, but because of a last second loss to Miami-Ohio in the tournament championship, along with a very soft schedule, the Zips were not invited to the Big Dance. Although the Zips have lost last season's MAC Player of the Year, the team is still very strong and should once again compete for the league title. However, Akron will have to outlast the Golden Flashes and that will be a tough task. KSU finished last year with a 21-11 mark and a 12-4 conference record, and a similar outcome is definitely in the cards for the Flashes this campaign thanks to the return of four starters, as well as a strong recruiting class. Not to be overlooked are the Bobcats of Ohio, as the team returns three starters, and possesses possibly the best frontcourt in the league. Unfortunately, Buffalo and Bowling Green will have a tough time winning many games in the East Division. As mentioned before, the West Division was dominated by the Rockets last season, but that might not be the case this time around. Toledo has lost three key starters, and although the recruiting class is solid, expect the Rockets to take a step back this year. The frontrunner for this division looks to be the Western Michigan Broncos, mainly because the team returns the majority of its roster, including all five starters from last season when the team posted a 16-16 overall record, along with a 9-7 mark in conference action. However expect the Chippewas of Central Michigan to have a say in the winner of the West Division. The Chippewas were only 7-9 in league action a year ago, but the team possesses a possible Player of the Year candidate, along with the one of the top recruiting classes in the conference. Unfortunately, the Eastern Michigan Eagles, Northern Illinois Huskies and Ball State Cardinals will spend the season trying to stay out of the basement in the division.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Central Michigan
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: EAST DIVISION: 1. Kent State, 2. Akron, 3. Ohio, 4. Miami-Ohio, 5. Buffalo, 6. Bowling Green. WEST DIVISION: 1. Central Michigan, 2. Western Michigan, 3. Toledo, 4. Ball State, 5. Eastern Michigan, 6. Northern Illinois.
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
EAST DIVISION:
KENT STATE: The Golden Flashes pride themselves on stingy defensive play, and that has helped the team post nine consecutive 20-win seasons. Last year the Flashes surrendered only 62.4 ppg, while forcing an impressive 16.6 turnovers per contest. Once again the defense for KSU should be solid, but offensively is where the team has plenty of questions. Two of the top scorers from 2006-07 are gone, leaving the squad without a double-digit point producer. The main weapon for Kent State will be Haminn Quaintance, who was a nightmare for opponents last season. The 6-7 forward was a key reserve for the Golden Flashes last season, averaging 8.2 ppg to go along with 5.3 rpg. Quaintance also led the squad with 48 blocks and 50 steals. The leading returning scorer for the Flashes is senior Mike Scott (9.4 ppg), but he is much more valuable for his play on the boards, as the forward paced the team a year ago with 6.4 rpg. Two key additions this season with be transfer swingman, Rashad Woods, from DePaul and 7-0 center Gabe Garcia, who is a native of Brazil. Both players should instantly contribute and give KSU a bigger presence down low.
AKRON: The Zips are coming off a year in which the team posted a school- record 26 wins. However, a soft schedule left the team out of postseason play. The team returns three starters, including MAC Player of the Year candidate Jeremiah Wood, as the Zips will try to push their way into postseason play in 2007-08. Wood is clearly the anchor of this frontcourt, as the 6-6 forward tallied 10.3 ppg, while also collecting a team-best 7.8 rpg. Quade Milum and Nate Linhart will also join Wood in the paint, giving the Zips a devastating frontcourt. The loss of point guard Dru Joyce will surely hurt, but the Zips possess a solid backcourt tandem in Cedrick Middleton and Nick Dials. Both players are excellent from behind the arc, as Middleton netted 39.4 percent from long range, while Dials posted a 43.2 three-point shooting percentage. In a reserve role, Middleton averaged an impressive 11.1 ppg, while Dials will return to his starting spot where he contributed 9.9 ppg.
OHIO: The Bobcats are a very dangerous team with three solid starters returning to the mix. The frontcourt for Ohio could possibly be the best in the MAC, as the duo of Jerome Tillman and Leon Williams will cause plenty of problems for opponents. The two forwards were the top two performers for Ohio last year, as Tillman tallied 14.6 ppg to go along with 8.2 rpg, while Williams posted 14.4 ppg and also collected 8.8 rpg. With the addition of Murray State transfer Justin Orr, this will be an extremely difficult frontcourt for any opponent. Sharp shooting Bubba Walther will be a staple for the Bobcats this season, as the guard connected on 74 three-point shots. The main issue for this squad will be at point guard, where the team will need to find a replacement for Sonny Troutman. As of now, junior college transfer Mike Allen looks to be the top option for Ohio, as the guard is a tremendous floor general who can also play suffocating defense. Incoming freshman Tommy Freeman and three-point shooter Bert Whittington will also find plenty of time on the court this season.
MIAMI-OHIO: The RedHawks' run to the NCAA Tournament was based solely on the play of the team at the defensive end of the floor. Miami-Ohio held the opposition to just 57.4 ppg a year ago and for the RedHawks to return to the Big Dance the team must duplicate that effort. The leader of this group is without question forward Tim Pollitz. The 6-6 senior has dominated down low for Miami, and is coming off a terrific season in which he posted 16.1 ppg to go along with 5.6 rpg. While Pollitz is the anchor for the RedHawks, swingman Michael Bramos is clearly the sparkplug for Miami. Bramos tallied 11.2 ppg last season, but it is his defensive play that makes him valuable, as the junior led the squad with 41 blocks and 46 steals. Alex Moosmann, who struggled last year as a freshman, will get another chance to prove his worth, but this time the guard will have much more help thanks to incoming juco transfer Kenny Hayes and also freshman Rodney Haddix.
BUFFALO: The Bulls have always relied heavily on their strong frontcourt presence, but the departure of Yassin Idbihi and Parnell Smith leaves coach Reggie Witherspoon with plenty of questions. Replacing Idbihi, possibly the best big man to ever play at Buffalo, will be virtually impossible. Looking to take on that task will likely be Vadim Fedotov. The 6-9 junior only averaged 3.3 ppg a year ago and will have to improve drastically if he plans on anchoring the frontcourt. Also slated to find time in the frontcourt is Kambi Laleye, who only posted 1.1 ppg last season. However, he has the most upside out of a bunch of mediocre players. Fortunately Witherspoon does not have a problem figuring out the team's floor general, as the honor will undoubtedly go to Byron Mulkey. Mulkey walked on to the team as a freshman a year ago and proceeded to average 9.3 ppg and 4.5 rpg. Andy Robinson, who produced 10.3 ppg in '06-07, will be Mulkey's running mate. However, the bottom line for this group is the frontcourt play. If the Bulls cannot produce down low, it will be a long season in Buffalo.
BOWLING GREEN: New head coach Louis Orr has a tough task ahead of him, as he will have to bring the Falcons back to the top of the MAC, and without the team's leading scorer from a year ago. Martin Samarco, who averaged 19.5 ppg last season, is gone, but the team does return players such as Ryne Hamblet and Nate Miller. Hamblet is clearly the top guard for BGSU this year, as the 6-6 senior posted 10.4 ppg to go along with a team-best 125 assists. Unfortunately there is not much else in the backcourt for BGSU, as the team will likely go with Brian Moten. The frontcourt has much more depth, beginning with Miller, who was a monster in the paint last season, posting 14.1 ppg to go along with 7.7 rpg. Teaming up with Miller will be Erik Marschall and Otis Polk. Marschall is a big forward, who can easily average a double-double if he can stay on the court and avoid injuries. As for Polk, he did very little last season, but the 6-9 sophomore will certainly get a chance to shine this time around.
WEST DIVISION
CENTRAL MICHIGAN: Coming off a losing season in his first year on the sideline for CMU, head coach Ernie Zeigler has the Chippewas primed to take the crown in the MAC. Leading the way for this squad will be Giordan Watson, a prototypical guard with a strong shot along with an ability to drive the lane. Watson averaged 18.8 ppg last season and also led the squad with 129 assists and 51 steals. As of now, Jordan Bitzer will be the other guard for CMU, as the sophomore is coming off a 7.4 ppg performance. However, Bitzer could lose time to incoming freshman Chase Simon, who was a high school phenom. The frontcourt is not as solid, mainly because a few players are coming off injury-riddled seasons. Chris Kellermann only played 19 games last season, averaging just 8.8 ppg and 3.2 rpg. Expect those numbers to rise, especially if he can play a full season. The biggest weapon on the baseline for CMU will be Marko Spica, who is a tremendous power forward with plenty of scoring moves in the paint. The 6-9 sophomore is coming off a 7.1 ppg performance, but this year he has the chance to average a double-double. Another player who has a ton of offensive talent is transfer swingman Nate Minnoy. As a freshman at Purdue, the junior averaged 10.2 ppg and 5.1 rpg. Minnoy should give the Chippewas another scoring threat, especially with his quick moves and ability to drive the lane.
WESTERN MICHIGAN: The off-season was not kind to the Broncos, as three of their top players, along with the head coach all spent time in the hospital. Center Joe Reitz had to deal with an appendicitis, while Shawntes Gary and Jon Workman needed surgeries to repair hand and foot injuries, respectively. As for coach Steve Hawkins, he suffered a seizure during the summer, but just like the three previous players, he is ready to begin the season, and if the team can stay healthy the rest of the way, it will be a strong season for WMU. Everything begins with Reitz, as the center is one of the top big men in the MAC. He is coming off a 13.9 ppg and 8.6 rpg performance last season and should once again come close to averaging a double-double. Hopefully Workman can fully recover from the ankle surgery so he can give Reitz much needed help on the baseline. The combination of Shawntes Gary and David Kool give the Broncos a solid one-two punch in the backcourt. Gary posted 10.2 ppg last season and that number should increase this season, as the guard will look to drive to the basket more. As for Kool, he is the team's shooter, netting 41.9 percent of his shots from behind the arc last year. Running the show will be Michael Redell, who led the Broncos with 142 assists a year ago.
TOLEDO: The Rockets were the cream of the crop in the West Division last season, but with three starters gone, look for the team to take a step backward. Coach Stan Joplin runs a unique four-guard system and the floor general for him will once again by Kashif Payne. Payne only stands at 5-9, but the quick guard has a tremendous understanding of the game and finished last season with 4.2 apg. Juniors Jonathan Amos and Tyrone Kent will get their chance to prove their worth this season. Both players were significant last year off the bench, but now they need to step up their respective games to help Toledo repeat as MAC West champions. Replacing forward Florentino Valencia will be the biggest challenge and as of now there is no clear cut successor. Forward Jerrah Young, who is a West Virginia transfer, has impressive defensive ability, but must increase his offensive production if he wants to start in this new year.
BALL STATE: So many things went wrong for Ball State last season, on and off the court, and all those issues led to the resignation of coach Ronny Thompson. Enter Billy Taylor, former Lehigh coach, who will roam the sideline for Ball State looking to return this once proud basketball program back to the top of the MAC. However, regaining its elite status in the MAC will not happen overnight. Three starters do return, none are more important than Peyton Stovall. Before dealing with knee issues, Stovall had a tremendous sophomore season, averaging a whopping 16.7 ppg. He is a dangerous three-point shooter, but the guard needs to get over the knee problem and get back to his shooting form from two years ago. Also back for the Cardinals is forward Anthony Newell, who is coming off a solid season in which the junior averaged 11.9 ppg and a team-best 8.0 rpg. Unfortunately, coach Taylor does not have much more to work with and the six new players entering this year are all his recruits. How they work intothe system will go a long way in determining BSU's level of success in 2007-08.
EASTERN MICHIGAN: There is a lot to be positive about for the Eagles entering this new campaign. Sure, the team was just 13-19 overall last season, and only 6-10 in league play, but there is a ton of talent back for EMU. Point guard Carlos Medlock is the clear leader of this squad and was sensational for the Eagles last season before suffering a foot injury that left him on the bench for 13 games. Medlock is one of the top passing guards in the league (3.3 apg), and because of this, fellow guard Jarred Axon and swingman Jesse Bunkley should benefit greatly. Axon saw his time increase as the season progressed last year and because of his solid play he should be on the floor to begin the season. As for Bunkley, the transfer was an instant success, averaging 11.0 ppg. With this being his last season, expect big things from this dangerous 6-5 guard. The frontcourt will rest on the foot of Justin Dobbins. The forward missed some time last year with a nagging foot injury, but despite the troubles, he still finished with 5.8 ppg and 4.1 rpg. If Dobbins can remain healthy, he will certainly look to post big numbers this season.
NORTHERN ILLINOIS: Losing the top two scorers from a year ago will definitely hurt the chances of Northern Illinois trying to push towards the top of the division. However, former head coach of Colorado, Ricardo Patton, will try to get this program back in order in a timely fashion. After posting 23 losses last year (tying a school record) it is tough to imagine the Huskies going anywhere but forward. Cody Yelder is clearly the top offensive performer for NIU heading into this year, as the guard posted 9.8 ppg last season. However, he has yet to really touch his full potential because of injury issues. If the sophomore can remain healthy, expect a big year from him. Also returning is forward Ben Rand and guard Zach Pancratz. Both are tremendous defensive players, but neither are consistent offensively. Joining Rand in the frontcourt will be Shaun Logan. The 6-7 senior started almost every contest last year, and averaged 7.6 ppg and grabbed an impressive 5.5 rpg. All and all, the Huskies should collect double-figure wins, but anything higher than a .500 record is unlikely.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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