College Basketball Preview - Missouri Valley Conference

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

10/30/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - OUTLOOOK: The Missouri Valley Conference has made a name for itself the past several years, including last season, when the league sent two teams to the NCAA Tournament and two more to the NIT. The league though, won't be as strong this season as years past, as several teams return fewer than half of their starters from 2006-07. There will also be several new faces behind the benches, as there was five head coaching changes this offseason. While there are several changes and many more to come, one thing remains certain, and that is Southern Illinois is once again the team to beat. The Salukis won the regular season title last season and return several key pieces from that club which landed a fourth-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Bradley returns two premier players along the perimeter and that certainly puts it in contention for the title. Missouri State has a strong frontcourt and it could be time for the Bears to break through. Creighton was hit hard by graduation, but it always seems to find a way to post a 20-win season. Illinois State could be the sleeper in the MVC this season, as the Redbirds return a solid core of players that are hungry for success. Northern Iowa is coming off a sub par campaign, but the Panthers could rebound behind one of the top centers in the conference. Wichita State, Indiana State, Drake and Evansville all have new head coaches and for good reason, as each of these programs is in a rebuilding mode. Indiana State returns the most starters of the group, but it finished last in the conference in 2006-07.

CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Southern Illinois

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH:

1. Southern Illinois; 2. Bradley; 3. Missouri State; 4. Creighton; 5. Illinois State; 6. Northern Iowa; 7. Wichita State; 8. Indiana State; 9. Drake; 10. Evansville

TEAM BY TEAM ANAYLSIS:

SOUTHERN ILLINOIS: Winning has become the norm in Carbondale the past several seasons, as the Salukis have posted six straight 20-win campaigns, including last year's 29-7 finish. The 29 victories set a school record for SIU, which also advanced to the NCAA Tournament for the sixth consecutive year. Chris Lowery won the MVC Coach of the Year award for the second time in 2006-07, as he helped SIU win the regular season title with a 15-3 finish. Lowery has been highly successful in his three-year stint at SIU and he should be able to continue the program's success thanks to three returning starters and several other players with a good deal of experience. Jamaal Tatum, the MVC Player of the Year though, is gone, but Randal Falker has the ability to capture that award this time around. The 6-7 Falker is the team's leading returning scorer (12.3 ppg) and rebounder (7.7 rpg) and he is also a tenacious defender, receiving the MVC Defensive Player of Year award last season. Matt Shaw (6-7) should once again provide a nice complement to Falker in the frontcourt and he returns as the team's second leading scorer (11.3 ppg) and rebounder (5.7 rpg). Bryan Mullins is the lone returning starter at the perimeter and he will look to shine now that Tatum is out of the picture. Last season, the 6-1 guard averaged 6.3 ppg and 3.5 apg and those numbers will surely increase along with his touches. Wesley Clemmons (3.0 ppg) and Josh Bone (2.0 ppg) were role players last year, but with several holes to fill in the backcourt, they will surely see an increase in playing time. The Salukis ranked first in the MVC in scoring defense (56.2 ppg) last season, and suffocating opponents has become a trademark of this program.

BRADLEY: The Braves followed up their 2006 Sweet 16 appearance in the NCAA Tournament by going 22-13 en route to a NIT berth last season. The team also finished in fourth place in the league standings at 10-8 and that was quite an accomplishment for head coach Jim Les, who has guided this program to back-to- back 22-win campaigns for the first time since 1959 and 1960. The Braves lost five of their top seven scorers from a year ago, but there is still plenty of talent left over to make another run at the postseason. The two reasons for the optimism are Daniel Ruffin and Jeremy Crouch, both of which return a bit more experienced and wiser. The 5-11 Ruffin is the nation's active career leader in assists (475), and he can beat teams in several different ways. Last season, Ruffin averaged a solid 13.8 ppg, while leading the team with 5.4 apg. As for the 6-5 Crouch, he also netted 13.8 ppg last season and is deadly from long range, making an unconscious 83-of-166 attempts a year ago. As a team, the Braves thrive from behind the arc, where they shot 42.4 percent to rank fourth in the nation. In the frontcourt, Matt Salley (6-7) started 13 games last season and he produced 7.1 ppg and 4.8 rpg. He should become a full-time starter this year and that should lead to an increase is his numbers. A pair of juco transfers in Will Austin (6-7) and David Collins (7-0) could jump right into a starting role along the frontcourt, where the team will also count of several highly touted freshmen to produce right away.

MISSOURI STATE: The Bears put together another strong campaign last season, as they went 22-11 overall and finished third in the league standings at 12-6. Despite that and a solid RPI ranking, Missouri State was snubbed by the NCAA Tournament and it had to settle for a third straight NIT appearance. If this sounds familiar, it should, as the Bears won 22 games in 2005-06 and were also denied a chance to participate in the NCAA Tournament. Despite this and the loss of three starters, head coach Barry Hinson is optimistic that he can have the Bears dancing come March. The team though, lost three productive players at the perimeter and that will shift more of the focus onto the frontcourt, where Deven Mitchell (6-5), Drew Richards (6-9) and Dale Lamberth (6-5) all return. Last season, Mitchell finally lived up to his potential and he earned the MVC Sixth Man of the Year award, as he finished second on the team in scoring (10.8 ppg) and rebounding (5.0 rpg). Richards was a solid find for the Bears last season and he averaged 7.5 ppg and 4.6 rpg while winning the starting center job. As for Lamberth, he netted 7.5 ppg a year ago, but he shot just 35.8 percent from long range and that was a big drop off from the previous season when he hit 46.9 percent of his three-point attempts. All three players did a solid job for Missouri State last year, but each will need to step up their performance this time around due to the lack of a backcourt scoring presence. Spencer Laurie is expected to run the point this season, but the 6-1 guard is more of a passer (4.3 apg) than a scorer (5.9 ppg). Shane Laurie, Spencer's brother, will also see some significant playing time after posting 3.2 ppg in a reserve role last season. Lamont Austin and Tomas Brock are two talented freshmen and they may be thrust into the mix right away due to the lack of depth in the backcourt.

CREIGHTON: The Bluejays have won at least 20 games in nine straight seasons and they have made 10 consecutive postseason appearances under head coach Dana Altman, but those streaks could be in jeopardy this year. Creighton returns just one starter from last year's team, which finished second in the league standings (13-5) and won the MVC Tournament. That lone starter is 6-8 Dane Watts, who averaged 9.9 ppg and 6.4 rpg a year ago. The veteran forward is not only going to be counted on to score and rebound, but to also provide leadership for a team that is set to feature nine freshmen or sophomores. Kenny Lawson (6-9) redshirted as a freshman last year due to injury and now healthy, he could earn a spot alongside Watts in the frontcourt. At the perimeter, Josh Dotzler (6-1) is one player who does have some experience and he will try to shake off an injury plagued 2006-07 campaign to run the point for the Bluejays. Pierce Hibma is a defensive specialist and the 6-4 guard could see an increase in playing time due to the young roster. Nick Bahe knocked down 25-of-60 three-point attempts last season and the 6-3 guard may find himself in the mix for a starting job this season. Creighton will rely on transfers and freshmen to fill out the rest of the roster.

ILLINOIS STATE: Porter Moser was let go following a fourth straight disappointing season in Normal and former Kansas assistant Tim Jankovich was brought in to turn the program around. Jankovich inherits a team that went just 6-12 in league play and 15-16 overall last season, but he does welcome back four starters and some key reserves from that group. Included in the starters is 6-11 center Levi Dyer, who could be ready to dominate after averaging a team-high 12.1 ppg a year ago. Dyer isn't just a threat in the low post though, as he knocked down 48.0 percent of his 125 three-point attempts to rank second in the conference. Jankovich however, is hoping to find Dyer in the paint a little more considering the senior grabbed a mere 3.3 rpg last season. Dyer unfortunately, was arrested for DUI in April and he could be suspended pending the outcome. Anthony Slack (6-7) averaged 9.4 ppg and 5.7 rpg off the bench last season, but he appears ready to move into a starting role this year. At the perimeter, ISU has high expectations from Osiris Eldridge, who was voted the MVC Freshman of the Year after averaging 9.8 ppg and 2.8 rpg in 2006-07. Joining him in the backcourt will be Boo Richardson and Dominitrix Johnson, a pair of experienced players that know how to spread the ball around. Richardson turned in 9.8 ppg and a team-best 4.9 apg despite some inconsistent play last season, while Johnson posted 8.3 ppg and 3.2 apg in making 26 starts. Juco product Emmanuel Holloway is extremely talented and he could make an immediate impact on this lineup.

NORTHERN IOWA: In Ben Jacobson's first season as head coach at UNI, the Panthers had their streak of three straight NCAA Tournament appearances snapped with an 18-13 finish. The good news though, is that Jacobson welcomes back three starters from last year's club and that experience should help the Panthers do better than their 9-9 league record from 2006-07. Center Eric Coleman, who stands at just 6-6, is one of the top returning players in the conference and he led the league in rebounding with a 9.1 rpg average last season. Coleman is also the team's top returning scorer (13.1 ppg) and he will certainly be the foundation of this year's squad. Another duty Coleman will have is to provide is leadership to a pair of sophomores in Jordan Eglseder (7-1) and Adam Koch (6-8), whom both should be a factor in the low post this season. In the backcourt, the Panthers will turn to the duo of Travis Brown and Jared Josten to lead the way. The 6-3 Brown averaged 7.9 ppg a year ago, while the 5-11 Josten chipped in with 7.8 ppg. Adam Viet (4.8 ppg) shot 42.1 percent from long range coming off the bench last season and the 6-3 guard will add some depth to the backcourt. Carlton Reed transferred from Iowa last season and he is now eligible to play, but he will have to beat out a few players to earn a starting job at the perimeter.

WICHITA STATE: The Shockers started off last season 9-0 and were ranked in the Top 10 and all appeared good. That was until mid-December, when the team was hit by several injuries and plummeted to just a 17-14 finish. Following the disappointing season, head coach Mark Turgeon bolted for the Texas A&M job, leaving WSU without a coach. The Shockers though, went out and got Gregg Marshall, who led Winthrop to seven NCAA Tournament appearances in his nine seasons. Marshall inherits a team that returns just two starters and lost several players due to Turgeon's departure. On a positive note, Marshall was happy to see P.J. Couisnard return after initially declaring for the NBA draft. The 6-4 guard is one of the most athletic players in the league and he is coming off a 2006-07 campaign in which he averaged 11.8 ppg and 5.8 rpg. Among the other starters welcomed back is 5-11 guard Matt Braeuer, who netted 6.1 ppg and dished out 3.2 apg a year ago. Braeuer is smooth with the ball and he led the MVC in turnover ratio (2.79) last season. Wendell Preadom (2.4 ppg) and Gal Mekel (4.0 ppg) were two players that saw playing time at the perimeter last season and they will add some depth to the backcourt. While there are some proven players at the perimeter, there is little experience in the frontcourt. Phillip Thomasson (6-7), a Colorado State transfer, and freshman Ehimen Orukpe (7-0) could be thrown right into the mix, although Orukpe has had some trouble getting out of his native country of Nigeria. Ramon Clemente is one of three juco transfers that could also earn a starting spot in the frontcourt if he does enough during practice.

INDIANA STATE: The Sycamores have been the doormat of the MVC the past several years, but with four starters back in the fold and a new coach, things are looking up in Terre Haute. After serving as an assistant coach the last nine years at Creighton, Kevin McKenna is now set to take over an ISU program that is coming off another last place finish (5-13) in the MVC. One player that can help turn things around for McKenna is Gabriel Moore, who led the team in scoring (11.5 ppg) a season ago. The 6-1 guard dished out 3.9 apg last season and he brings a lot of experience to the table as a four-year starter. Cole Holmstrom will join Moore at the perimeter and he is coming off a solid freshman campaign in which he averaged 9.2 ppg while making 20 starts. Marco Stinson, a 6-3 guard, was another impact freshman for the Sycamores last season, and with a year of experience now under his belt don't be surprised if he surpasses his 2006-07 average of 9.4 ppg. In the frontcourt, ISU will surely benefit from the return of Jay Tunnell and Adam Arnold. The 6-8 Tunnell started 29 games and averaged 9.0 ppg and 5.4 rpg last season, while Arnold added 6.0 rpg and a team-high 6.2 rpg. Brant Leitnaker (6.5 ppg) and Mick Yelovich (3.0 ppg) both stand at 6-10 and they will compete for the starting center job.

DRAKE: The Bulldogs posted their first winning season in 20 years in 2006-07, as they finished with 17 victories against 15 losses. Following the season though, Tom Davis stepped down as head coach and his son Keno stepped in as planned. Keno served as an assistant to his father the last several years and Drake had already signed a deal to make Keno the head coach once Tom stepped down. Keno has a good deal of work ahead of him, as Drake welcomes back only two starters from last year's team that went just 6-12 during league play. Among the returnees is Klayton Korver, a 6-6 forward that has a lot of talent, but has been plagued by injuries. The younger brother of NBA standout and former Creighton star Kyle Korver, Klayton averaged 9.3 ppg a season ago and is primed to break through this time around. The Bulldogs also welcome back Josh Young, a 6-1 guard that led all MVC freshmen in scoring with 10.7 ppg last season. Jonathan Cox is a third player with some experience, as the 6-8 forward turned in 5.6 ppg and 3.4 rpg coming off the bench last season. Guard Leonard Houston is another player that could land a starting job after posting 4.5 ppg in a reserve role a year ago.

EVANSVILLE: The Purple Aces have suffered through seven straight losing seasons, but they are hoping new head coach Marty Simmons can turn things around. Simmons, a former standout player and an assistant at Evansville in the 1990's, inherits a tough situation due to the graduation of three 1,000- point scorers. Still, there is some talent for Simmons to work with, including Jason Holsinger. The 5-11 guard is the team's leading returning scorer (11.5 ppg) and he is also a big time playmaker, dishing out a club-high 5.1 apg last season. He is also a threat from behind the arc, where he shot 43.7 percent a year ago. Shy Ely, a 6-4 swingman, also returns for the Purple Aces and he hopes to rebound from a disappointing campaign in which he averaged just 6.9 ppg. Jay Couisnard, a 6-5 guard, started 20 games as a freshman last season, but he is considered more of a defender than a scorer, averaging just 1.8 ppg. Darin Granger (6-2) started six of the final eight games of his freshman campaign last season and that experience could help him land a permanent job in the lineup in 2007-08. In the low post, Evansville is hoping 7-0 freshman Zach House can contribute immediately. House bulked up to 234 pounds upon his arrival and he should provide the team with a solid presence in the paint. Another freshman, Clint Hopf (6-8) and a juco transfer Nate Garner (6-5) will battle for playing time along the frontcourt.

Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds

Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it. Work left to do: Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney. Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson. Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable. Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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