10/30/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Cbasketball Betting) - OUTLOOK: The Northeast Conference has experienced uncommon parity in the era of dominant programs in Division I basketball. There has not been a repeat NEC champion since the 1993-94 season, and history looks to repeat itself in the 2007-08 campaign. Central Connecticut State looks to break this trend, but must fill the void of losing three starters, including the NEC Player of the Year. Looking to take over the throne are several schools bolstered by massive returning talent. Sacred Heart and Robert Morris each return three starters and hope to be playing in the NCAA Tournament come March. Wagner could be the dark-horse as they return four starters, along with the addition of a former NEC All-Conference player coming back after a year away from school. Mount St. Marys and Quinnipiac feature talented guards that will determine their teams success. St. Francis (Pa.) does not have a single senior on its roster, but has a young and talented nucleus that should bring the Red Flash out of the basement of the NEC. St. Francis (N.Y.) and Long Island have experience on the wings and in the post, but need better guard play from their raw playmakers. Though the league is guard-heavy, Fairleigh Dickenson and Monmouths lack of an interior presence could make this a long season for their respective fan bases.
CONFERENCE CHAMPION: Sacred Heart
PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH: 1. Sacred Heart, 2. Wagner, 3. Robert Morris, 4. Central Connecticut State, 5. Mount St. Marys, 6. St. Francis (N.Y.), 7. St. Francis (Pa.), 8. Quinnipiac, 9. Long Island, 10. Fairleigh Dickenson, 11. Monmouth
TEAM BY TEAM ANALYSIS:
SACRED HEART: After 29 years under his belt as Sacred Heart head coach, Dave Bike might have his most accomplished team to date. After coming within four points of a conference tournament title and a spot in the NCAA Tournament, Bike knows the target is spotted directly on the Pioneers back this season. With three returning starters and four players who hit at least 39 three-pointers last season, Sacred Heart looks to dominate teams on the perimeter again this season. Led by junior Luke Granatos 71 shots from beyond the arc and sophomore sensations Chauncey Hardy and Ryan Litke, the Pioneers should be poised to challenge last years 78.5 points per game. Last years leading assist man is back in Drew Shubick as he looks to feed these outside threats. The inside game of senior forward Joey Henley should improve as he is two years removed from missing an entire season due to injury. These returning stars could determine whether or not Sacred Heart wins its first ever NEC title.
WAGNER: Possibly the most prolific returning class in the NEC this season belongs to the Seahawks. Five returning players have 500 or more career points, and all have started at one time or another for Mike Deanes program. A welcome addition to the lineup is former first-team All-NEC forward Durrell Vinson. Vinson left school for the 2006-07 season after averaging 15.2 ppg and 9.6 rpg in the previous campaign. His rebounding ability was missed, but teamed with last years leading rebounder James Ulrich, the Seahawks should own the boards this season. Leading scorer Mark Porter, playing point guard last season, led the team in points, 13.8 ppg, and assists, 5.2 apg. Fellow veterans Jamal Smith and Joey Mundweiler both averaged over 11 points a game and should factor in Wagner competing for the NEC crown.
ROBERT MORRIS: First-year coach Mike Rice has the good fortune of coming into a program that returns four of its starters. Seniors Tony Lee and A.J. Jackson each earned second team All-NEC selections last season. Lee averaged 15.9 ppg and grabbed an impressive 6.1 rebounds per game. Standing at only 6-foot, Lees tenacity and competitiveness spreads throughout the Colonials lineup as they ranked eighth in the nation with 2.8 steals per game. Jackson finished third in the league in scoring last year with 16.9 ppg and second in rebounding with 7.8 rpg. Among their other returning starters are Jeremy Chappell, who average 14.4 ppg, and 6-9 center Freddie Harris, whose presence inside makes it difficult to score down low on the Colonials. With the kind of talent Rice has returning, look for Robert Morris to significantly improve its .500 conference record of last season.
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE: After a slow non-conference start, the Blue Devils rattled off a 16-2 conference record in route to a regular season and NEC Tournament title last season. Unfortunately for Coach Howie Dickenman, he lost his two big guns on that team, NEC Player of the Year Javier Mojica and conference-leading rebounder Obie Nwadike. To fill that void, NEC Co-Defensive Player of the Year and First Team All-NEC Tristan Blackwood will have to be even more dynamic than he was last season. Blackwood finished second in the league in scoring with 17.1 ppg while being tremendously accurate. His 122 three pointers set a new single-season conference record and his .924 free throw percentage ranked him fourth nationally. Standing at only six foot, Blackwood can't do it all, especially down low. That burden will be placed on a slew of newcomers, including 6-6 transfer Marcus Palmer. Palmer played at Eastern Arizona College and was named an NJCAA All-American last season when he averaged 21.0 ppg and 7.0 rpg. It will take a lot of work for Coach Dickenman to pull off a repeat championship with seven first-year players in the program.
MOUNT ST. MARY'S: Exceeding many expectations last year, the Mountaineers look to sustain their success through top-notch guard play. NEC All-Rookie team member Jeremy Goode looks to improve on his fabulous freshman season when he ranked third in NEC in steals, 1.8 spg, and fourth in assists, 5.0 apg. He will often look to set up fellow guard and leading scorer, Chris Vann. In his junior season, Vann led the Mountaineers in scoring with 13.6 ppg. With these two fixtures at the helm, sophomores Kelly Biedler and Will Holland should see open looks from the outside and knock them down with regularity.
SAINT FRANCIS (N.Y.): The Terriers hope to get out to a better start than they did last year, when they lost their first 12 regular season games. Having four starters return, along with six of the top-seven scorers, expectations are rather high this season for third-year coach Brian Nash. Leading scorer and rebounder Robert Hines comes back for his senior season after averaging 16.5 ppg and 5.9 rpg. A pair of experienced guards will be the playmakers in the backcourt. Jamaal Womack and Marcus Williams are high energy, versatile guards that will dictate the flow of the game. Womack averaged 10.6 ppg and hit 67 three-pointers on the season. Williams is an all-around guard averaging 8.2 points, 2.8 assists, 5.1 rebounds and 1.7 steals per game last season. If the Terriers can find some more scoring options, they will likely shock some doubters.
ST. FRANCIS (Pa.): A stretch of 15 straight losses last season proved too much to overcome for the inexperienced Red Flash, as they finished last in the conference for the second year in a row with a 5-13 conference record. But after winning four of its last five, and having all five of their starters return to the program, things are looking up for head coach Bobby Jones. Sophomore swingman Devin Sweetney is the catalyst for this young group, and typifies their young and talented roster. Sweetney led all NEC freshmen last year with 13.0 ppg and 7.7 rpg. Alongside on the wing will be Chris Berry, a junior who averaged 11.7 ppg and 4.9 rpg. Distributing the rock to these young scoring threats will be Marquis Ford and Cale Nelson. Both average around nine points and four assists a game. St. Francis has no seniors on the roster as it looks to build around this young core and hopefully move up the ranks of the NEC.
QUINNIPIAC: Inexperience and questions down low are obstacles first-year head coach Tom Moore must overcome. Moore comes from the University of Connecticut, where he was longtime assistant under Jim Calhoun. He takes on the daunting task of replacing four starters lost to graduation. His lone returning starter is senior guard DeMario Anderson. Anderson brings with him a solid game and second-team All-NEC honors last season, where he ranked eighth in the league in scoring, 15.7 ppg, and tenth in field goal percentage (.508). With only two returning forwards, the newcomers will need to have an immediate impact for the Bobcats to compete.
LONG ISLAND: Coach Jim Ferry has three key players coming back for the Blackbirds' frontcourt. Heading the wing is inside/outside threat Eugene Kotorobai, who hit .400 from three-point range while leading the returnees in scoring, 9.7 ppg, and rebounds, 6.5 rpg. Kellen Allen is a 6-7 jump hook specialist who looks to come back to form after missing the last 18 games last season due to injury. He shot 56.5 percent from the field when healthy and hopes to improve on his 4.8 ppg this season. The trouble from the Blackbirds lies in the backcourt. Last year, they relied on three-time All-NEC guard James Williams to produce. With Williams graduating, Jaytomah Wisseh and Tyrone Mattison must pick up the slack with their up-tempo style and create chances for the big men inside.
FAIRLEIGH DICKENSON: For a quarter of a century now, the Knights have been led on the sideline by Tom Green. The conferences winningest coach has a tough task this year in replacing the NECs leading scorer, forward Andre Harris. Though he many not have the firepower down low to replace Harris scoring, he has a pair of experienced guards to manage the floor. Junior Cameron Tyler has shown he can do it all on the floor. He has more career points (574), assists (214), and rebounds (173), than any other returning player. He is joined in the backcourt by Manny Ubilla who averaged 11.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg and 2.9 apg last season. If 6-8 freshman John Galvin can replace some of Harris scoring, FDU should improve on their 9-9 conference record.
MONMOUTH: Perennial contender Monmouth finished a surprisingly sub-par 7-11 in conference play last season while missing out on their first postseason tournament in eight years. No player in the frontcourt has more than a year's experience as the team hopes guards Jhamar Youngblood and Whitney Coleman can lead the Hawks back to respectability. Youngblood made a quick impact last season and gained the coveted NEC Freshman of the Year award. He averaged 12.3 ppg, while shooting .525 from the field. His quickness and one-on-one ability should create double teams and open opportunities for his teammates. Versatile guard Whitney Coleman led the team in minutes, while averaging 9.1 ppg and 3.1 rpg. If the guard play can get some help down low, look for the Hawks to soar back to the top.
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The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.
While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.
For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.
1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.
2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.
How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.
Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.
Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.
How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).
Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.
Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.
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The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.
Thursday, August 21
NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road
In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games
Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.
Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.
Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.
That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.
Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.
CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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