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06/20/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers will try to complete the sweep over the Houston Astros when the two teams collide this afternoon in the finale of a three-game set at Minute Maid Park.
The Rangers will send C.J. Wilson to the hill and he will be looking for his third win in his last four starts. The last time Wilson was in action he held Florida to just two runs on two hits and six walks in six innings. Despite the walks, Wilson had a solid effort, but did not factor in the decision.
Wilson has made 10 career appearances against Houston, but this is his first- ever start against the Astros. In his career against Houston, he has two saves in nine innings and a 5.00 earned run average.
The Astros will look to Felipe Paulino this afternoon, but the right-hander has struggled through a miserable season. Paulino has just one victory in 13 starts this season, and is coming off an embarrassing performance against Kansas City.
In the loss to the Royals, Paulino surrendered 10 runs -- eight earned -- in less than five innings of work.
This will be Paulino's second-ever start against Texas.
On Saturday, Colby Lewis hurled his first career complete game and Justin Smoak added a two-run home run and three RBI as Texas topped Houston, 5-1.
Michael Young added a solo homer for the Rangers.
Lewis (7-4) won for the third straight time by allowing just a pair of hits and one run, with nine strikeouts.
"I was in a similar situation as in my start in Seattle," said Lewis. "I was able to get my breaking ball over whenever I wanted to and that's a big part of my game."
Michael Bourn doubled and scored the lone run for the Astros, who slid to their seventh loss in eight tries.
"I've been feeling better out there," said Bourn. "When you're slumping sometimes you push the panic button and I haven't done that. I've just been taking it day by day."
Brian Moehler (0-4) was saddled with the loss despite allowing Smoak's two-run homer in the second inning. The right-hander did walk four and struck out three.
The Rangers claimed the Silver Boot, awarded to the winner of this six-game season series, last year by taking five of six from the Astros. That included a three-game sweep in Houston in which Texas outscored its in-state opponent 17-8.
<< Mariners host Reds in series finale at Safeco
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Still in search of his first victory, Ryan Rowland-Smith
will take the hill this afternoon for Seattle, as the Mariners will host the
Cincinnati Reds in the finale of a three-game series at Safeco Field.
Rowland-Smith
<< Tigers wrap up home series with Diamondbacks
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Tigers and the Arizona Diamondbacks will
collide this afternoon in the finale of the three-game interleague series at
Comerica Park.
The Diamondbacks will send Ian Kennedy to the hill, as the young h
<< Solid pitching matchup on tap between Rays, Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the brightest young pitchers in the game will oppose
each other when the Florida Marlins and the Tampa Bay Rays meet in the finale
of a three-game series today at Sun Life Stadium.
Taking the ball for the Rays
<< Phils rest hopes on Halladay in finale vs. Twins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Philadelphia's honeymoon with ace Roy Halladay has
certainly reached its end with the way the former Cy Young award winner has
pitched lately. Halladay will try to regain his solid form today in the finale
of a th
O's hand ball to Arrieta in San Diego >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the fans of Baltimore there is not much to be excited
about these days, but the play of Jake Arrieta since being called up might
just give the fans some promise for the future.
The young hurler will take the hi
Braves' Kawakami hopes to end misery vs. KC >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It has been a tough year for Kenshin Kawakami, but the
right-hander will try to finally break into the win column when he takes the
hill this afternoon in the finale of a three-game set between the Kansas City
Royals
Ryan wins Challenge Tour even by two >>
El Jadida, Morocco (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Christopher Ryan Baker posted a four-
under 68 Sunday to win the Moroccan Golf Classic by two strokes.
Baker finished his first European Challenge Tour victory at 13-under-par 275.
Third-round lead
New Zealand earns shocking draw with Italy >>
Nelspruit, South Africa (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - New Zealand pulled off one of the
most stunning results in the FIFA World Cup on Sunday at Mbombela Stadium as
it earned a 1-1 draw with defending champions Italy in Group F play.
The Kiwis wen
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Academy Award Betting Odds for Best Picture Offer Great Value
If there is any category that is not an obvious win for any one nominee in this year's Academy Awards, it would be for Best Picture. Sure the Departed is a 5/7 favorite, but that's hardly anything when we look at Helen Mirren and her "out-of-reach" 1 to 40 odds (which means you would win a whopping $1 for every $40 bet).
For value, take a look at MySportsbook.com Oscars betting odds on my personal favorite, The Queen - a remarkable 12 to 1 long shot. The film hasn't won any pre-awards for Best Picture (compared to The Departed and Little Miss Sunshine), but there is a tremendous following and it is a strong enough film to warrant a surprise win.
TV Guide advises Oscar watchers should be cautioned not to discount the drama "Babel" with its strong social themes about overcoming communication gaps among people of different cultures.
"While 'Babel' lost several guild awards to 'Sunshine' and 'Departed,' it still enjoys loyal support, and historically Oscar voters favor dramas with social messages over comedies like 'Sunshine' and violent crime movies like 'Departed'."
"It hasn't done well in the guilds, which means there isn't much industry support," said Tom O'Neil of awards site TheEnvelope.com, "But several critics are expecting it to win, and that gets my attention." Babel had 7 to 2 odds at press time.
Who is to say independently produced Little Miss Sunshine won't be this year's Crash. Last year, Crash won for Best Motion Picture, shocking those who bet on gay cowboy flick, Brokeback Mountain, as the favorite to win.
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