Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting
03/02/2010 - New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rachel Alexandra, 2009 Horse of the Year, had her final major workout Tuesday morning before her 2010 debut. The four- year-old filly breezed six-furlongs at the Fair Grounds in preparation for the $200,000 New Orleans Ladies on Saturday, March 13.
With regular exercise rider Dominic Terry aboard, Rachel went the six-furlongs in 1:13 3/5 on a track listed as fast. She went seven-furlongs in 1:26 2/5 and 1:41 1/5 for a mile.
"I was hoping she'd go a little quicker," trainer Steve Asmussen said. "She settled off the other horse (Depaul) really nicely. She stayed with her left lead trying to stay with the other horse, then she switched to her right lead and accelerated. We're happy with where she's at. The main thing is she's healthy and this is a step in the process to getting her back to her previous level.
"She was a little keen early. She was very aggressive and hard-held early. For him (Terry) to still have control with one in front of her was very impressive. It was a little slower from the five-eighths to the three- eighths."
Owned by Jess Jackson and Hal McCormick, Rachel Alexandra could face as many as 10 challengers in the 1 1/16-mile New Orleans Ladies. When nominations for the race closed this past Saturday 16 fillies and mares were named.
Seven of the horses are considered probable with several others listed as possible. Among the probables are Clear Sailing, a four-year-old filly trained by Glenn Delahoussaye and owned by Keith and Ginger Myers.
"She's doing great," said Delahoussaye. "She's going to work Wednesday and we'll see how she works and how she comes out of it and take things from there. We're working her Wednesday with the intention of running her in the New Orleans Ladies."
Clear Sailing is the winner of three of four career starts with earnings of $92,940. Last month she won the $60,000 Pelleteri Stakes at the same distance as the New Orleans Ladies. The daughter of Empire Maker is undefeated in her last three starts, all with jockey Shane Sellers.
"I don't think there's any trainer in the world who's insane enough to say he's looking forward to running his horse against Rachel Alexandra," said Delahoussaye, "but for me this race is not about whether it's Rachel or not Rachel in there against our horse. The New Orleans Ladies fits the progression about where I wanted to be at this point in time.
"Right now we're trying to keep our filly's races at least a month apart, because my owners have this dream of winning a stakes races at Churchill Downs during Kentucky Derby week. The New Orleans Ladies would keep us on a schedule for Churchill's La Troienne Stakes on Kentucky Oaks Day. That's our long term goal."
According to Fair Grounds stakes coordinator Scott Jones, other probable starters for the Ladies include Bayakoa Handicap winner Zardana, trained by Zenyatta's trainer John Shirreffs; Double Espresso, winner of the Pan Zareta Stakes at the Fair Grounds and Unforgotten, second in last year's Chicago Handicap behind 2009 champion female sprinter Informed Decision.
Rachel Alexandra will follow her start in March with an ultimate showdown versus Zenyatta. The two female thoroughbreds are to finally meet at Oaklawn Park in the $5 million Apple Blossom Invitational on Friday, April 9.
Zenyatta is based at Hollywood Park where she has been working out. Owned by Jerry and Ann Moss, Zenyatta will start in the $250,000 Santa Margarita Invitational on March 13.
<< Sens acquire D Sutton from Islanders
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Ottawa Senators have acquired defenseman
Andy Sutton from the New York Islanders in exchange for a second-round draft
pick in 2010.
Sutton is in his 11th NHL season and had four goals and eight assis
<< Real, Barca are world's richest clubs
Barcelona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Barcelona has overtaken Manchester United
in the latest rich list of European clubs.
Real Madrid still top the Deloitte Football Money League but Barca are now
second ahead of United, largely becaus
<< Glazers rule out selling United
Manchester, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Glazer family is adamant that they
have no intention of selling Manchester United.
A group called the "Red Knights" are reported to be interested in buying the
recent Carling Cup winners from the
<< Royals sign Hochevar, Rosa for 2010
Surprise, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Kansas City Royals have agreed to
contracts with pitchers Luke Hochevar and Carlos Rosa for the 2010 season.
Hochevar was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2006 draft and debuted for the big
league
Flyers D Parent activated off IR, returns Tuesday >>
Tampa, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Flyers activated defenseman Ryan
Parent from injured reserve on Tuesday, and will return to action Tuesday as
the club faces the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Parent had successful surgery in late Jan
Liverpool's Skrtel could miss rest of season >>
Liverpool, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Liverpool defender Martin Skrtel could
struggle to return to first-team action before the end of the season after
being told he faces an eight-week lay-off with a broken metatarsal.
He suffered the
RSL releases pair of veterans, pair of rookies >>
Sandy, UT (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Salt Lake waived midfielder/forward Rachid
El Khalifi and forward Abe Thompson and released rookie defenders Kris
Banghart and Justin Davis from its preseason camp, the Major League Soccer
club an
2011 Pro Bowl to be played before Super Bowl XLV >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The National Football League announced on
Tuesday that the 2011 Pro Bowl, which is to return to Honolulu after a one-
year absence, will be once again played the week before the Super Bowl.
The decisio
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your Sportsbook accepts Visa needs.
Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting