Scarface Shoots into Kentucky Derby Picture

Horseracing Betting Lines

02/16/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Caracortado is the Spanish translation for Scarface and the aptly named three-year-old gelding shot down his opponents last Saturday in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita.

The California-bred, sent off as the 9-2 fourth choice in the five-horse field, is undefeated after winning his fifth consecutive race and first in open stakes company.

Caracortado benefited from a dream trip sitting behind the early speed before taking the lead into the stretch and drawing away for the 1 3/4-length victory. The final time of 1:41 3/5 for the 1 1/16-mile event was the fastest at the meet and one tick better than Pioneerof the Nile's win in last year's Robert B. Lewis.

How good is the son of Cat Dreams? It's hard to tell. He was handed the race on a silver platter after Tiz Chrome and American Lion set torrid early fractions of 23 1/5 and 47 seconds. (For comparison purposes, three-year-old fillies went 24 1/5 and 48 2/5 in the one-mile Las Virgenes Stakes, older mares went 23 4/5 and 48 flat in the Santa Maria at 1 1/16 miles, and the early fractions in the 1 1/8-mile Strub Stakes for older colts were 24 1/5 and 48 1/5.)

Caracortado passed his tired rivals with ease, running his final 2 1/2- furlongs in 30 seconds flat. It was a much-improved effort from his last start - the California Breeders' Champion Stakes - where he ran the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:43 3/5, just one tick faster than maiden claimers had done earlier on the card.

The Michael Machowsky-trained gelding is expected to return to the races on March 13 in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita where he could face last year's top two-year-old, Lookin At Lucky.

What about the rest of the field? Dave in Dixie closed well for second in his first start since early October. Expect improvement in his next outing, but he still might be a cut below the best.

As for Tiz Chrome and American Lion, the two favorites had little chance to succeed given the pace of the race. However, they are still extremely talented colts who will benefit from this experience.

Does that mean they are Kentucky Derby bound? Probably not at this point in their careers, but don't dismiss them next time out, especially Tiz Chrome, who should move forward on true dirt if Bob Baffert takes him outside of California.

A FILLY TO WATCH

She's not Rachel Alexandra, but Blind Luck could have "Derby Fever" after winning the Las Virgenes by a nose over Evening Jewel. It's true the margin of victory was scant, but the daughter of Pollard's Vision ran her final quarter- mile in an unbelievably fast 22 2/5 seconds while going about eight wide entering the stretch. It was her third Grade 1 win in five tries and second in a row.

Interestingly enough, Blind Luck began her career running for a $40,000 tag at Calder Race Course last June. She won by 13 1/4-lengths that day proving herself on a conventional surface, something she won't have to do next time out as she will stay in Southern California and against fillies in the Santa Anita Oaks on March 6.

As for Evening Jewel, the daughter of Northern Afleet has now finished first or second in six straight races, including a loss to Caracortado by 1 1/2- lengths in an allowance event at Hollywood Park last December.

RULE RULES THE DAY

The Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs belonged to the leading money winner in the field as Rule won his second straight graded race to improve his record to four victories in six lifetime starts.

The son of Roman Ruler out of the mare Rockcide (a half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide) prevailed by three lengths in 1:44 for the 1 1/16- mile race.

Rule broke sharply from the rail stealing the race with a 23 2/5 first quarter followed by an even slower 24 1/5 second quarter. To show how pedestrian the pace was, $5,000 claimers ran the half-mile a full second faster in a 1 Mile and 40 yard race earlier in the day!

Given the unhurried early fractions, there was little chance for any horse to knock off Rule on this particular afternoon. Schoolyard Dreams tried his best by engaging the even-money favorite at the quarter pole but fell short by three-lengths.

Uptowncharlybrown, a major disappointment, finished third, four-lengths in back of the winner. The previously undefeated son of Limehouse broke a step slow and was a good two-to-three lengths behind the other five horses as the field went by the stands the first time.

Due to the dawdling tempo of the race, Uptowncharlybrown had virtually zero chance of making up any ground, especially after trailing by seven-lengths down the backstretch.

Chalk up the loss as a learning experience in his first try around two turns. The colt did gallop out nicely after the race and has license to improve in the Tampa Bay Derby given a different set of circumstances.

NOTES FROM MONDAY For the second time this February, a three-year-old graded stakes race had to be postponed when hazardous racetrack conditions befell Oaklawn Park preventing the Southwest Stakes from going off as planned.

The race, which featured the top three finishers from last month's San Rafael Stakes and the top two colts from the Smarty Jones, will be re-drawn on Thursday and run on Saturday.

Further west at Santa Anita, Sidney's Candy had an easy time disposing six rivals in the San Vicente, taking the Grade 2 seven-furlong race by 4 1/4- lengths in a brisk 1:20 4/5.

It was his first time setting the early pace in four career starts for jockey Joe Talamo and the chestnut son of Candy Ride loved every second of his most impressive performance to date.

Sidney's Candy is bred to handle any sort of distance but he still has yet to race further than seven furlongs. Only time will tell if the John Sadler- trained colt will be a factor on the Derby trail.

THE NEW JEFF FRANK TOP 12

The first future wager closed this past Saturday with the field favored at 3-2. Last year, the "all-others" Pool 1 wager was slightly higher at odds of 9-5, while two years ago the number was set at 3-1. Considering the field took home the honors both times, it's easy to see how the odds are much lower in 2010.

Lookin At Lucky is the 8-1 favorite among the 23 single betting interests with Buddy's Saint slightly behind at 10-1. Super Saver, Drosselmeyer and Dublin are tied for third in the wagering at 20-1.

Here is my updated list with closing Pool 1 odds:

1) Buddy's Saint (10-1); 2) Kettle River (3-2-Field); 3) Lookin At Lucky (8-1); 4) Super Saver (20-1); 5) Jackson Bend (27-1); 6) Uptowncharlybrown (34-1); 7) Noble's Promise (36-1); 8) Drosselmeyer (20-1); 9) Caracortado (3-2-Field); 10) Pleasant Storm (3-2-Field); 11) Dave in Dixie (3-2-Field); 12-T) Tiz Chrome (37-1), Rule (24-1) and Dryfly (46-1).