Third-ranked Nittany Lions host struggling Wolverines

NCAA Football Betting Lines

10/15/2008 - University Park, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-ranked Penn State Nittany Lions continue their quest for the Big Ten title as they entertain the struggling Michigan Wolverines this Saturday at Beaver Stadium.

The Wolverines, long a power in the Big Ten and on the national scene, have been anything but this season, stumbling to a 2-4 record and they are in serious danger of missing the postseason. Michigan is in the midst of a two- game slide, and is coming off its first-ever loss to an opponent from the Mid- American Conference as the Toledo Rockets claimed a 13-10 triumph in Ann Arbor last weekend.

Penn State climbed to third in this week's AP poll following its 48-7 rout of Wisconsin in Madison last Saturday. The Nittany Lions are 7-0 for the 11th time in coach Joe Paterno's 48 years at the helm, and the team is off to its best start since the 1999 squad ran out to a 9-0 mark. PSU has won 38 of its last 47 games to post the sixth-best record in the country over that span. The Lions play at No. 12 Ohio State next Saturday.

Michigan owns a 10-3 advantage in the all-time series with Penn State, and has won each of the last nine meetings. The last four have been decided by a combined 17 points. The Wolverines are 5-1 in Happy Valley over the years, having won four straight on PSU's home turf.

Turnovers proved to be Michigan's undoing in last week's loss to Toledo, as three miscues led to 10 points for the Rockets. One of the turnovers was a first-quarter INT that the Rockets returned 100 yards for a TD. RB Sam McGuffie put his best foot forward in an effort to lead the Wolverines to victory, rushing for 105 yards, but it wasn't enough to held the home team avoid a truly humiliating defeat. The QB tandem of Nick Sheridan and Steven Threet combined to go 15-of-27 for 120 yards with a TD and three picks. McGuffie served as the team's leading receiver as well, hauling in five balls for 44 yards. The UM offense converted just 3-of-13 third down attempts and came away with points on only one of its three trips to the red zone.

Coach Rich Rodriguez did not sugarcoat his feelings following the loss. "I'm just extremely disappointed and embarrassed. The guys, everybody in that locker room is hurting. They're all disappointed. They're playing hard. They're just not playing well."

Michigan is averaging 18.8 ppg this season behind just 291.5 total ypg. The Wolverines have scored only 13 points in the second quarter and a paltry seven points in the third quarter of their games this season. The passing attack generates a mere 160.8 ypg and has accounted for only seven TDs in six games. Threet, who is nursing a bruised elbow at the moment, has taken the majority of the snaps but has completed a dismal 50.8 percent of his throws for just 708 yards. He does however, have a favorable TD-to-INT ratio (6/3). Conversely, Sheridan has thrown five picks against just one TD. McGuffie leads the team with 424 rushing yards and three scores.

Michigan had some trouble defending the passing attack of Toledo, giving up 257 yards, including a record-setting 20-catch, 162-yard effort by UT's Nick Moore. However, the Wolverines did not allow an offensive TD and are currently giving up just under 25 ppg on the season. Foes have found it difficult to run against the Maize and Blue, doing so for only 102.5 ypg, which ranks the club among the top teams in the Big Ten coming into action this week. The Wolverines have permitted the opposition to get off to a fast start in most games, yielding a total of 96 points in the first half but only 53 in the second. Obi Ezeh paces the team with 56 tackles, 15 more than his closest teammate, and his six TFLs ranks second behind Brandon Graham's 10.5, five of which have been against the opposing quarterback.

Penn State continues to chew up yardage and light up the scoreboard, logging 377 yards and 48 points against what was thought to be a solid Wisconsin defense. QB Darryl Clark threw for a career-high 244 yards and a TD, while running for a pair of scores. Clark finished 16-of-25 and now has 10 TD passes against only two INTs on the year. WR Derrick Williams returned yet another kick for a TD, this time taking a punt back 63 yards, and he now has three kick return scores this season, and five in his career -- the most of any player in Paterno's near five-decade reign. RB Evan Royster churned out 60 yards on 14 totes against the Badgers.

Despite having little difficulty in the game, Penn State continued to attack the beleaguered Badgers. Paterno defended the aggressive play calling, "You know, I've been in some ball games where it turned around so fast, it'd make your head spin. I thought when we came out in the third quarter we needed to get on the board a couple times. I maybe played the first string a little longer than I should have and given the younger kids a chance, but one big play here, one big play there, and it gets to be a dogfight."

The Nittany Lions are the highest scoring team in the Big Ten, averaging 45.3 ppg. They also lead the conference in rushing with 235.1 ypg, doing so behind Royster who has gained 719 yards and scored nine TDs thus far. Clark is hitting 64.4 percent of his throws for an average of 194.3 ypg, while Williams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood have combined for 66 catches, 1,024 yards and eight TDs.

The Penn State defense stymied the Badgers at virtually every turn last week, allowing 313 yards and coming up with four turnovers. Wisconsin was successful on just 5-of-16 third down attempts and made just one visit to the red zone. Aaron Maybin was all over the field for Lions, coming up with six tackles, 3.5 of which were TFLs (one sack). He also forced a pair of fumbles in being named the Big Ten's co-Defensive Player of the Week. Clark earned offensive honors for his effort.

Through the first seven games, Maybin has 12.5 TFLs, nine of which are sacks. Navorro Bowman has 60 tackles to his credit, which is far and away the most of any Lion to this point in the season.

Foes are generating just 259.3 yards and only 11.0 points per game this year, and the Nittany Lions have stuffed the run to the tune of 89.9 ypg on an average of just 2.7 ypc -- both of which are tops in the conference.

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Football Betting

NFL Football Betting Online

The San Francisco 49ers (5-11 SU, 5-10-1 ATS in 2007; 1-1 SU & ATS in pre-season) found some offensive life last week, and they will try to build some momentum on Thursday night as they travel to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears (7-9 SU & ATS in 2007; 0-2 SU, 0-1-1 ATS in pre-season) in an NFL matchup that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Soldier Field (natural turf) in Chicago.

Thursday, August 21

NFL betting odds: CHICAGO -3 (-120), Total 37

NOTABLE STAT: San Francisco was last in points, last in total offense in 2007
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: SF has lost its last seven SU on pre-season road

In the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a three-point favorite (laying -120), with the total posted at 37 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* SF has lost 11 of its last 14 games SU
* SF has covered three of its last 11 games
* SF has lost six of its last seven road games SU
* SF has covered one of its last seven road games
* CHI has covered five of its last eight games
* CHI has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* CHI has covered four of its last 13 home games
* SF has lost its last seven pre-season road games SU
* CHI has covered two of its last seven home pre-season games

Well, I guess we should congratulate the Bears on making their quarterback choice for the season's opening game, as they have designated Kyle Orton the starter against Indianapolis. The Bears obviously have lost patience with Rex Grossman, and what they do with him at this point is anybody's guess. But suffice it to say that there isn't a quarterback competition anymore, at least in training camp.

Meanwhile, the quarterback competition may also be settled in San Francisco, where the Niners bounced back from a lackluster 18-6 loss to the Raiders, in which they turned the ball over four times, to execute a 34-6 rout of the Packers last Saturday. However, coach Mike Nolan has stopped short of saying that, insisting that the job is still open. But J.T. O'Sullivan, the longshot of the trio of Niner signal-callers who opened camp, will start his third straight pre-season game here. Against Green Bay, O'Sullivan was only 8-for-17, and was intercepted, but he also threw for 9.1 yards an attempt, which included a 59-yard TD pass to Josh Morgan. The others struggled.

Some offensive cohesion is badly needed, in light of the Niners' dismal 2007 campaign, in which they were dead last in the NFL in scoring, with just 13.7 points a game. And O'Sullivan is the guy who is most familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Martz's exacting system, because he learned it last year in Detroit. O'Sullivan will go at least the entire first half and may even last longer. He'll be relieved by Alex Smith, with Shawn Hill doing the mop-up work. Three receivers who were out last week - Bryant Johnson, Ashley Lelie and Arnaz Battle - will miss this game too.

That may hurt a little here, especially since the Bears will be using a lot of their defensive starters. And it's the defense that has been keeping the Bears in games thus far. In fact, the defense and special teams were responsible for the first 19 points Chicago scored against Seattle last time out, as the offense really struggled with Grossman at the controls. But maybe the first-team offense has a chance to settle a little bit as it works more with Orton at the helm.

Certainly we have concerns about the Bears' offensive line, but we like the scenario for them here, especially if O'Sullivan doesn't make some bis plays. The Niners may have nowhere else to turn right now, and they have lost seven straight road games in the pre-season. Let's take Chicago, the three-point favorite in the NFL football betting odds.

CHICAGO -3 (-120) **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

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