Sixers should feel obligated to keep Iguodala

Basketball Betting Lines

02/13/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - I'm not a big fan of obligation.

Albert Einstein once said "It is every man's obligation to put back into the world at least the equivalent of what he takes out of it." While I'm not claiming to be on the same mental plane as Mr. Einstein, I'm comfortable in disagreeing with him on this one.

I've always felt man's only obligation is to be true to himself.

Some may call that selfish but it's not necessarily. It's called free will. If you want to help others, knock yourself out. If you want to look out for old No. 1, go right ahead.

Experience has taught me when people do things out of obligation, disaster usually results.

Take me for example. Many of you know Philadelphia is currently experiencing its worst winter in history. Two historic storms in the last week have been dubbed the "Snowpocalypse," as the City of Brotherly Love set its all time seasonal record for the white stuff.

When it comes to weather, the Northeast is like the New York Yankees or Dallas Cowboys. The region gets far more publicity than the rest of the country so I get why most people could care less when we complain. But, trust me this was bad. I lived in Minneapolis for 10 years and never experienced anything remotely like it.

I happen to live in a suburb of Philadelphia and share a driveway with a neighbor that happens to own a snow blower, a piece of equipment that usually does nothing more than collect dust every winter.

Last weekend it snowed 29.2 inches in my little part of the world and that was followed by another 16-plus inches just days later, so that snow-blower turned from expensive paper weight into a very valuable commodity.

To his credit, my neighbor burst into action, helping me clear the driveway.

So what's the problem?

Well, my neighbor is a really good guy and he not only helps me, he has been paving his way to the pearly gates by plowing the driveways of everyone within shouting distance.

And I, thanks to the better half, was obligated to pitch in, a feeling that can only be described as helpless.

With the second storm looming, I did everything I could to secure my own snow- blower, knowing full well if I made the purchase I would have nothing more than a rather expensive garage decoration for the next decade. I called every Lowes, Home Depot and Sears in the county.

It was a pipe dream. All the other detractors of obligation had swiped them up and my barking back and aching knees were back out playing block captain next to "Captain Do-Gooder."

The result?

A pending trip to the chiropractor and a possible damaged liver from gulping down Advils like they were Tic-Tacs.

Obligation strikes again.

Ed Stefanski should learn from my little story because he is about to be bitten by the obligation bug.

The embattled Sixers president is seriously thinking about trading his best player, Andre Iguodala, simply because he feels obligated to do something.

A local guy, Stefanski knows his city well. When hired he correctly observed that "patience doesn't go over well in Philadelphia."

Stefanski's two big moves since taking over the Sixers, signing an injured Elton Brand to a massive free agent contract and hiring crony Eddie Jordan as head coach, have been abject failures. A disastrous season has resulted and put the bull's-eye squarely on his back.

With the trade deadline looming, Stefanski feels obligated to do something. Sure, he would like to deal Brand or center Samuel Dalembert but that seems unlikely. Brand's contract and health concerns make the veteran virtually unmovable, while a 15 percent trade kicker and Dalembert's shaky work-ethic have nixed more than one possible deal over the past year.

Iguodala is the one tradeable commodity the Sixers have.

Philadelphia's "star" swingman is in the second-year of a six-year, $80 million dollar deal and a number of league executives are salivating over the idea of adding his all-around game to their teams.

Stefanski certainly knows Iguodala is best-suited as a complimentary piece, a player that should pattern his game after Scottie Pippen -- stuff the stat sheet and help the team win a different way every night. But, the Sixers' basketball chief has been unable to get a primary offensive option opposite Iggy.

When Brand scribbled his name on an $82 million dollar deal before last season, Stefanski thought Iguodala's short reign as "Batman" in Philadelphia was over. He thought Iguodala would slip into a more appropriate role, the perfect "Robin," the Academy Award winning supporting actor that would become a daily triple-double threat on the offensive end with the ability to torture people on the defensive side of the ball.

Instead, Stefanski struck out miserably with Brand, and magnified the mistake by settling on a new mentor that coaches like a 10-year old kid with ADD.

So, Iguodala continues to be the proverbial fish out of water in Philly. He is "the guy," a role ill-fitted for the Arizona product and one that has made him more and more disliked with the team's dwindling fan base.

A fact that has the NBA's other GMs circling like sharks and smelling blood in the water.

Obligation has Ed Stefanski on the verge of making his final mistake as president of the 76ers.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.